It’s nothing new for companies to threaten Microsoft’s business model and in particular its dominance of the desktop operating systems where it has over 90% control. The line of prior contenders include IBM’s OS/2, mis-marketed and mispriced, Apple’s early operating systems, too expensive and incompatible, Linux and Open Source, to geeky and incomplete, Sun’s Java, never gained critical mass on the desktop outside browsing.

But things have changed a lot over the last 20 years and this time it looks like Google may have enough pieces of the puzzle, ready to assemble and at arm’s length, to create a real threat. The growth of the Internet has standardized and commoditized network access (TCP/IP), information sharing (XML/SOA), content presentation and many elements of data storage and functionality (HTML, JavaScript, XML, Flash etc). Google has critical mass in the information aggregation and search market, has a decent installed browser (Chrome) and the financial strength to fight a lengthy and costly battle with the most successful technology company of all time.

Google has already stated that they plan to start with cheap Internet ready laptops a market segment where low cost, low features products can expect to gain more and more traction and have all the hall marks of disruptive technology. But it’s been tried before with other low cost, low function desktop appliances and alternatives and everyone but Citrix’s technology has effectively failed. It’s also an area where traditional market players are less likely to focus and presents an opportunity to gain a competitive foothold from which to grow a business.

These changes will present exciting new opportunities for companies with the strategic vision and execution ability who can get in front of this opportunity. What does that mean? We think it means starting to talk to Google about how to become an app vendor for this new platform, much as companies have done with Apple’s iPhone platform. There’s a huge opportunity for early adopters to get a free ride on Google’s marketing and distribution machine and as one of the first players, you’re going to stand out in the market before the rush of ‘me too’ competitors get there to.

From a technology perspective, we already know that it’s going to be an open- source (Linux kernel), web-based platform that most likely builds on the capabilities of the Chrome Browser and Android handheld platform. From here we can only speculate that Google will start building more network enabled operating systems drivers and features into this code base as it quickly grows to become a true Internet oriented operating system. What are the APIs and features going to look like, we don’t know yet, but start by taking a close look at Chrome and Google’s other software and it may provide clues for the future.

Our best guess is that Google Chrome OS 1.0 will look something like this…  Take the Chrome Browser as it appears today and include a series of enhancements aimed at improving the capabilities of Google’s existing ‘Science Project’ technology.  Add some client side improvements for Gmail, Calendar, Search, Images, GoogleDocs, Mapsand make them run very fast.  Expect that the new OS will start-up really fast, I’m thinking in a few seconds vs. a few minutes for Windows.  Image a basic series of file system, print, sharing and collaboration built into a series of browser pages.   Then a series of new third party and Google applications as they look for a ‘killer application’ which they need to drive excitement and rapid adoption for some niche of new customers.

If you want to capitalize on this oppurtunity, start a strategic planning discussion around what this opportunity means for you and how you can effectively position your products and services to take advantage of Google multi-billion dollar machine.  Is your product or service, something that would work well on a light-weight, low cost, web enabled lap-top with a fast, new browser based operating system?  If so, keep a watch for Google’s announcement for third party app providers and be ready for some late nights!

Latest update 7/12/09:

With a post to the official Chrome blog Wednesday afternoon, the Mountain View Chocolate Factory said its hardware partners include Acer, Asus, Freescale, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Toshiba.

Googe are going to Open Source the software later this year, which will drive adoption and support.

The price is going to be free.  Expect to see something 2H 2010.

An good article on the topic from HBR Google’s Chrome OS: A ‘Nuclear Bomb’ or Just Noise?